The Mediterranean is warming around 20% faster than the global average, posing urgent risks—especially from rising sea levels. Temperatures are projected to exceed 2°C by 2040 and reach around 2.3°C by 2050. What was once expected by the end of the century is now likely by mid-century. These shifts will intensify droughts, floods, and heatwaves—both on land and at sea.
Nearly 7% of the world’s population lives in the region, including about 150 million people along its coasts. Over 70% live in urban areas, and 37% of coastal zones are low-lying, placing roughly 42 million people at direct risk. Population growth is expected to continue (Plan Bleu, 2005).
By 2100, sea levels could rise by 62 cm under low-emission scenarios and up to 1.01 m under high-emission scenarios, threatening coastal populations and infrastructure (MedECC 2020).
Coastal zones are areas of exceptional human, cultural, ecological, and economic value. At the same time, they are increasingly exposed to environmental risks. Fisheries generate about USD 2.4 billion annually, while tourism attracts over 400 million visitors each year (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu, 2020). In some countries, tourism’s contribution to GDP has grown by 60% over the past two decades. However, this growth has driven rapid coastal urbanisation, weakening ecosystem resilience.
Extreme weather events are not only becoming more frequent—they’re also intensifying and affecting regions that historically experienced more stable climates. This shift is closely linked to rising global temperatures, which disrupt atmospheric and oceanic systems.
Take southern Europe and North Africa as examples:
Sea level rise is expected to become one of the dominant drivers of coastal change, increasing both the frequency and intensity of flooding. France, Spain, Italy, and Greece face the highest total damages, while Egypt and Tunisia are most vulnerable relative to GDP (Ocean & Climate Platform, 2022).
Cultural heritage is also at risk, with 49 UNESCO World Heritage sites threatened, including Venice, Split, Trogir, Tunis, Algiers, and Istanbul. Coastal squeeze is endangering key habitats such as deltas, lagoons, and wetlands, while beaches in some areas could retreat by up to 50 meters (Ocean & Climate Platform, 2022).
Ecological impacts will be severe. A 1.2 m rise in sea level could destroy over two-thirds of loggerhead turtle nests and nearly 60% of green turtle nests. Warmer seas will drive species migration, coral loss, jellyfish blooms, and declines in cold-water species, especially during marine heatwaves.
Land subsidence is worsening sea level rise impacts in vulnerable areas such as the Nile Delta, where coastal erosion can reach up to 48 m per year (Abou Samra and Ali, 2020). Already, 42% of Tunisia’s and 28% of Greece’s coastlines are affected.
Storm surges are also intensifying, particularly in the northern Adriatic. Under high-emission scenarios, European storm surge levels could rise by 15% by 2100. In some cases, storm-driven sea level rise of 0.6 m could temporarily erode 31% to 88% of beaches (Monioudi et al., 2017).
Extreme events are intensifying water scarcity, particularly in coastal areas already under pressure from population growth and rising demand. By mid-century, over 250 million people in the Mediterranean are expected to face water scarcity. Water resources are highly unevenly distributed, with around three-quarters located in the northern Mediterranean while most demand is concentrated in the south and east.
This scarcity risks escalating tensions between countries and within societies, especially as agricultural demand increases.
Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean have become in general longer and more intense. Since the beginning of the 1980s, average Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures have increased throughout the Mediterranean basin, but with large sub–regional differences between +0.29 and +0.44°C per decade (MedECC, 2020), with stronger trends in the eastern basins (Adriatic, Aegean, Levantine and north–east Ionian Sea). Marine heat waves in the Mediterranean will very likely increase in spatial extent, become longer, more intense and more severe than today. These are expected to occur in the Mediterranean from June to October and to affect the whole region at their peak (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu, 2020).
MHWs can cause immediate shifts in the distribution of (mobile) species, and cause local extinctions, indicating that many, marine ecosystems may not be resilient to extreme events. Moreover, rising CO2 concentrations are leading to seawater acidification, which can harm marine life and ecosystems.
One of the first documented MHW-related mass mortalities in rocky benthic communities was from the north‑western Mediterranean Sea during the summer of 2003: several thousand kilometres of coastline were affected by a MHW with temperatures of 1‑3 °C above the climatic values, which caused the mass mortality (up to 80 % of the population) of at least 25 species of soft corals (e.g. sea fans) and sponges
If current trends continue, the Mediterranean is likely to face growing inequality, environmental degradation, and socio-political instability. Without decisive action, the region risks an increasingly unstable and unsustainable future.
Abou Samra, R. M., & Ali, R. R. (2021). Applying DSAS tool to detect coastal changes along Nile Delta, Egypt. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 24(3), 463-470.
MedECC (2020) Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Marini, K. (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 632pp, ISBN 978-2-9577416-0-1, doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4768833.
Monioudi, I. N., Velegrakis, A. F., Chatzipavlis, A. E., Rigos, A., Karambas, T., Vousdoukas, M. I., … & Collins, M. B. (2017). Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17(3), 449-466.
Ocean & Climate Platform. (2022). Adapting Coastal Cities and Territories to Sea Level Rise in the Med iterranean Region: Challenges and Best Practices. Ocean & Climate Platforme. 48 pp. https://ocean-cli mate.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Seaties_Rapport_Mediterranee_Final.pdf
Plan Bleu (2025). MED 2050, The Mediterranean by 2050, A foresight by Plan Bleu. https://planbleu.org/ wp-content/uploads/2025/01/MED-2050-REPORT-EN.pdf
UNEP/MAP (United Nations Environment Programme/Mediterranean Action Plan) and Plan Bleu (2020). State of the Environment and Development in the Mediterranean. Nairobi. https://planbleu.org/wp-con tent/uploads/2020/11/SoED-Full-Report.pd
